A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
